Bangladesh has witnessed a political storm. A students’ tsunami has swept away 15 years of uninterrupted rule of Sheikh Hasina. On August 5, she was forced to flee to India from Bangladesh as Army refused to suppress the rising tide of people’s mobilization which forced police force back into police stations and at places stormed police stations.
Such volcanic events have many underlying factors propelling them. Sheikh Hasina’s brutal suppression of students protesting against reinstatement of 30% reservation for Awami League supporters in the name of descendants of fighters of 1971 war against Pakistan Army became immediate tipping point for her increasingly undemocratic rule. More than 440 students have reportedly been killed in these protests which have been saga of courage and sacrifice. Dacca, Chattogram, Rangpur, and several other centres became the battlegrounds for this struggle. Though Sheikh Hasina Govt. was forced to roll back this reservation in 2018 but got it reinstated through High Court and sought to suppress students’ protest. Supreme Court annulled the High Court order but it was too late, Bangladesh having erupted against Awami League rule, students’ protest galvanizing wider mobilization. She did not know or keep in mind that the rulers who suppress students come to grief.
Sheikh Hasina had suppressed several movements against her rule over last decade and a half. She banked on police and Army for sustaining her rule. But this time Army did not come to her aid and forced her to leave power and the country. Under her rule, not only people but opposition parties of ruling classes were suppressed with several leaders languishing in jails or forced to flee the country. Sheikh Hasina did away with the requirement of forming an Interim Govt. to hold elections and reduced elections to farcical exercise. 2018 elections witnessed large scale protests and elections held in January 2024 were boycotted by all the opposition parties. With Sheikh Hasina bringing about one party rule, democratic space including in elections was virtually eliminated. In October-November 2023 strike by four million garment workers, 85% of them women, for wage increase and safety measures and against workload was brutally suppressed with half a dozen workers including a woman worker killed and criminal cases foisted against 19,500 workers. Over time, Awami League also underwent transformation with business interests increasingly dominating the Party and forming a coterie around Sheikh Hasina. The earlier leadership of teachers, lawyers and professionals which had navigated Awami League through several rounds of repression was done away with in favour of these vested interests. Isolation of Sheikh Hasina and Awami League from the people has not come in a day.
These protests came in the backdrop of slowing economy, increasing unemployment especially among youth and rise in prices of essential goods and intensifying contradictions among the foreign powers especially US-UK, China and India. These powers had influence in economy, society, polity and in defense forces. The current Army Chief had been trained in British Academy and Army participates in UN led peace missions coming under the influence of western powers.
Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina rule is touted as an economic success story. It did benefit from foreign investments especially in garment sector which emerged during the period mid-1990s onwards after WTO became operational in a unipolar world. Bangladesh emerged as the biggest exporter of garments, second only to China, with western markets main destination of these exports. Garment exports contributed nearly four fifth of its export earnings. Foreign investments were attracted by offering cheap labour and also freedom from enforcement of rights of workers including any provision of their safety. This arms-length production means production for MNCs’ profits but no legal liability- production being carried on arms length from foreign firms many of them well known international brands. Rana Plaza collapse on 24 April 2013 killed 1134 workers and over 2500 were rescued from the building which housed garment factories. This was deadliest garment factory disaster in history and was called by Amnesty International “The most shocking recent example of business-related human rights abuse.” International brands obviously escaped all accountability. Second sector which attracted foreign investment was pharmaceuticals, again for avoiding closer scrutiny in western countries.
While this period witnessed improvement in foreign exchange situation and increased Govt. revenue, it led to growing inequality in Bangladesh. With growth of these FDI dependent sectors, per capita GDP of Bangladesh went ahead of India and Pakistan with industrial sector contributing nearly 30% of the economy. However, workers were forced to work on extremely low wages and without due safety provisions for the profits of multinationals. However, one aspect was a large scale employment of women workers. Bangladesh has high literacy rate among women (74%). But post-Covid, the recovery of this export sector has been patchy. With the rise in fuel prices post Ukraine war, Bangladesh currency Taka came under pressure losing 28% of its value in recent months. Stagnation and even decline in industrial sector has led to burgeoning unemployment with 30 million of 170 million Bangladeshis, mostly youth, unemployed. This can explain the student/youth outburst against this 30% reservation. Agriculture which contributes to about 14% of GDP employs nearly 42% of work force has received little attention from the Govt.
Besides economic downturn, Bangladesh caught itself in the cross-hairs of rising contradictions especially between US-UK and China. Russia which used to have influence in Bangladesh earlier has seen decline. While Indian Govt. has in recent decades drew closer to western powers, these ties have been strained post Ukraine war with India resisting US led western bloc to distance from Russia. China had increased its economic ties with Bangladesh increasing its investment. China has long term plans for this strategically situated country in the Bay of Bengal. Sheikh Hasina Govt. has been close to India while facing pulls from US-UK and China. US led western bloc which earlier had been aligning its policies in South Asia with India is now pursuing their interests separately while continuing attempts to wean India away from Russia. US had grown increasingly critical of Sheikh Hasina Govt. especially targeting its attack on democracy. US-UK have substantial interests in Bangladesh, in society, polity, armed forces and in economy. They constitute Bangladesh’s biggest export market as well as deep links through a number of NGOs floated by them and World Bank projects.
It is clear from the recent developments that inter-imperialist contradiction has intensified and will grow further especially between USA and China. Developments in Bangladesh should also be seen in conjunction with those in Myanmar where interests of these powers are clashing in the situation of growing armed struggle against the military rule in that country.
The current upsurge in Bangladesh should be seen in two phases. In the first phase in July 2024 it was primarily a students’ movement though opposition political parties may have been participating through their student activists. One should keep in mind vast student protests at same Shahbagh Square some years back demanding punishment for those who had perpetrated atrocities in conjunction with Pakistan Army in 1971. Thus, student activism in Bangladesh is not neatly divided among ruling class parties. However, after Hasina Govt. was pushed on the backfoot with demand for her resignation building in the backdrop of large scale killing and torture of students, opposition ruling class parties also mobilized their supporters. In demonstrations on August 4, police forces were attacked at several places and according to a report nearly 19 policemen lynched. After Hasina fleeing the country, ‘mobs’ controlled the streets and vandalized a number of places including stature of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and raided official residence of Prime Minister.
In period after August 5, houses and property of Awami League leaders were attacked with nearly two dozen of them reported killed. There have been reports of attacks on minorities (Hindus). According to Joint Council of Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, ten religious places of Hindus were attacked. In Dacca, Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre was attacked. In Rangpur two Hindu councilors were killed. These attacks against the minorities and their religious places have been condemned by student leaders and democratic rights activists. Students have formed groups to protect religious places of minorities. These actions are apparently acts of the forces which saw in this vacuum an opportunity to further their communal agenda. If these acts continue these forces will get strengthened.
Army and the President have brought in advisors for the Interim administration, a sort of Interim Govt., after consultation with student leaders, leaders of civil society organizations and political parties barring Awami League. 16 members have been sworn in on August 8 with Mohammad Yunus, known for his pioneering micro finance in Bangladesh, to bring petty producers under the corporate controlled finance capital. A Fulbright scholar, Mr. Yunus has been recipient of Nobel Peace Prize and US Congressional Gold Medal when Obama was President. A known supporter of the West, Mr. Yunus has kept 27 ministries with himself. Other members are drawn from different social groups including two student leaders. Army will definitely be the main prop of this Interim Govt. Declared mandate of this Interim Govt. is to restore democracy i.e. to hold ‘free and fair’ elections. No time period has been declared for completing this exercise.
It is apparent that sharp anger among students and deep resentment among the people has triumphed in throwing out Hasina Govt. At present it appears that pro-West forces have come to fore though situation is very fluid.
Major part of Indian media’s portrayal of this being China sponsored coup has been widely off the mark and meant to cover the activities of the Western powers whose hostility towards Hasina Govt. was known. Similarly, sections of Indian media have exaggerated attacks against minorities and have glossed over the attempts by student leaders and democratic rights organizations against these attacks. This is to suit their design to draw communal mileage in India from such attacks.
With ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Indian Govt. has obviously suffered a setback in Bangladesh. This will further complicate Indian Govt.’s Look East Policy, even handling of North East situation. This will however, cause big damage to a number of enterpreneurs mainly based in West Bengal who were doing business with Bangladesh. Govt. of India should address their grievances.
Coming period in Bangladesh is going to be tumultuous. Student and middle class mobilizations even when successful in overthrowing those in power, do not lead to alternate set of policies and are often used by another set of reactionaries to come to power. Bangladesh has had a strong student movement for a long time but this holds true for them. For such changes to lead to lasting change, these have to be integrated with and backed by organized working class and toiling people. Alternative polity will need alternative economy. Microfinance is no solution to the problems of the people. Nonetheless, people are on the move and this affords opportunity for revolutionary forces to steer Bangladesh towards freedom from imperialism and reaction. We are living through testing yet interesting times. CPI(ML)-New Democracy supports people’s struggle and stands with revolutionary, democratic and struggling forces in Bangladesh.
CPI(ML)-New Democracy
9.8.2024